The race for the next Prime Minister after Boris Johnson will be on till the 2nd of September. The Conservative Party recently voted the final two participants in the race. With Penny Mordaunt off the ballots, it would be tightly contested between Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss.
Sunak gathered more votes than Truss in the ballots that knocked Mordaunt out of the race. However, the bookies still give Truss better odds at winning, making it all the more interesting. The bookies go through extensive research to give the odds, so before betting for or against them, you should do your research too. Betting on politics like this is an underrated privilege UK punters enjoy, and it should be used wisely.
Compared to bettors across the globe, Brits generally have plenty to choose from. Whether it’s a political wager or making some money out of the heatwave, there will be plenty of options. This is something that sets the UK’s gambling industry apart from the others. For example, in Pennsylvania, gamblers can only place bets on professional or collegiate sporting events. However, the state does not allow betting on the NFL or NBA drafts, gambling expert Riku Vihreäsaari highlights. As Riku states in his analysis, bettors may instead place a wager on the league MVP or the winner of the Heisman Trophy, but Oscars and elections are out of the question.
Pennsylvania punters looking to bypass these laws often use “prediction markets” to access political betting markets. Whether you’re playing from a UK sportsbook or a prediction market, we have highlighted some interesting activities that might affect the way Tories’ votes will swing.
Brexit Party
In previous ballots, Truss had been holding the third position repeatedly. Her sudden jump to the second position in the recent Conservative MP’s ballots is what has kept her in the race. Bloomberg reports that the reason for this surge in her votes is that her supporters influenced the MPs’ votes with fears of a Nigel Farage comeback. With the Brexit Party Leader’s return, the Conservative MPs could lose their seats.
After her successful run at the MPs’ ballot, polls give Truss a higher chance of winning at the Tories’ election. This pattern of thinking is why she has better chances on the bookies’ odds too.
Tax Cuts
Economic Policy is one of the major factors that determine how votes swing during elections. In recent months, the cost of living in the UK has surged, and this is one of the reasons for the political upset in the country.
The two conservative candidates have opposing views on tax cuts. Truss promises to prioritise cutting them immediately while attempting to stabilise inflation and other economic challenges. Sunak promises to hold off on tax cuts until inflation has been handled.
These policies generate different emotions across the country. Polls suggest that the general populace resonates with Sunak’s plan to hold off on tax cuts and prioritise handling inflation. However, the Tories’ electorate is reported to have more interest in Truss’s plans.
Boris’ Resignation
Rishi Sunak served as the Chancellor of the Exchequer during PM Boris’ tenure. His resignation, along with the resignation of other members of parliament, led to the PM’s eventual resignation. Boris’ resignation brought different reactions across the party; however, some Tories hold on to a story that Sunak’s actions were geared towards the PM’s downfall. Sunak’s team has tried to reject these claims, but the votes remain in the hands of the Tories.
Sunak’s resignation was said to be based on the Prime Minister’s competence and ethics. However, with Boris being the party leader for such a long time, his supporters voting against Sunak might cost him the election.
Conclusion
Different twists keep occurring in the race for the Conservative Party leadership position. The latest polls swing in favour of Liz Truss. The bookies have also updated their odds to match the latest developments. Rishi Sunak’s team promises to improve its numbers towards the Tories’ election, and they have till early September to turn the odds in their favour.
If you’re placing a bet with a bookie or in a prediction market, you should follow the new events closely to make an informed betting decision.
Who cares. Either will be shit.
Likely in todays PC world, we all know who will be running the show
Exactly
Bring back Farage………..i liked him i did : < (