It would be fair to say that 2020 has been a year of heartache, turmoil, and uncertainty like no other, and those feelings of unpredictability have been reflected in the polls for the next UK general election.
That won’t take place until 2024 if no snap vote is called, and so there is plenty of time for the current debacle in Downing Street to be nothing more than a distant memory by then. But it was notable in November that Labour began to take control of the opinion polls for the first time in 2020, and in the politics betting odds both Sir Keir Starmer’s party and the Conservatives are at 2/1 each to secure a majority in the next election.
Of course, much of that sentiment is how Conservatives have managed the government and recent events, with people of all political persuasions querying how Boris Johnson has dealt with the unprecedented situation. Much of that will come out in the wash later, you suspect, but it’s certainly the case that pollsters have reacted to the government’s reaction.
On the island, the Conservative MP Bob Seely continues to be a popular leader, as far as his performance in previous elections is concerned, although of course, we’ll know more about the popularity of the Tories on the whole when islanders take to the ballots for the local elections next May. Labour has rejected the idea of a voting pact with the Green Party, and that may open the door for another blue victory.
LABOUR REJECTS 2021 LOCAL ELECTIONS PACT WITH GREENS – https://t.co/YLbq0LplYP #IsleofWight #iwnews #IOW
— Island Echo – 24hr Isle of Wight News (@islandecho) August 6, 2020
But as for the rest of the UK, the picture is much more unclear. So, who is in the early ascendancy in the race for 10 Downing Street in 2024?
Reacting to the Inevitable
Some considered Jeremy Corbyn, the previous Labour leader, to be ‘unelectable’ – a niche candidate whose far-left leanings were never likely to win over a voting electorate so divided by the EU referendum. And so, ahead of the next general election, the party has gone almost completely the other way, with the centrist knight of the realm Sir Keir Starmer in the hot seat.
The feeling is that he will attract interest from floating voters and Conservative defectors with his moderate politics. If the Tories do feel the fall out of a difficult 2020 – and those rumblings continue for the next few years – then there is the possibility of a total shift of political sentiment in the UK. Even then, a surprise Liberal Democrat majority is still considered outside of the realms of achievable at odds of 200/1.
🇬🇧 #UK #GB | General election poll
🟥 LAB 40%
🟦 CON 38%
🟧 LD 5%
🟩 GREEN 5%
🟨 SNP 5%
🟦 BREXIT 4%
🟩 PC 1%📊 @YouGov
ℹ️ https://t.co/wR21K7lm0a pic.twitter.com/267SyMWTdp
— Electograph 📊 (@Electograph) November 16, 2020
The recent polls need to be taken with a pinch of salt. Most will have been reacting to the present situation, and when the dust settles on a year of turbulence a more balanced view of the government’s handling of 2020 will emerge.
But Politico, the so-called poll of polls agency, have the current vote split at 39% for each of the main parties, while YouGov and Opinium both give Labour a narrow lead. Other polling firms, such as Kantar and SavantaComRes, still have the Conservatives in the lead as of November. With the polls so close, current odds of a Labour minority government stands at 4/1, with a Conservative minority government at 16/1.
The suggestion is that the next general election is too close to call. Given the present situation, many pundits are speculating whether Labour – if they are to wrestle back control – ought to be much further ahead in the polls given these turbulent times.
Perhaps Bob Seely and his Conservative colleagues will have plenty to celebrate the next time the Isle of Wight and the rest of the UK heads to the ballot box.
