Analysis of the data available for the coronavirus pandemic on the Isle of Wight shows that the local mortality rate is 19.64%. But how does that compare to other parts of the country and are we now reaching a peak in new cases?
The first confirmed case of COVID-19 was reported locally on 7th March – 17 days before the lockdown restrictions were imposed by the Government. Data released by Public Health England shows that the number of cases remained low until a spike began on 24th March – the day after the lockdown began – with the number of cases continuing to rise ever since.
Out of 56 confirmed cases of coronavirus on the Island (as of 13th April), sadly 10 people have died – a mortality rate of 19.64%. These figures relate to patients who have tested positive at St Mary’s Hospital and who have died in the hospital environment. The youngest victim on the Island was aged in their 50s, whilst the oldest was in their 90s.
This graph visualises the number of cases (blue), the number of deaths (red) and the number of recoveries (yellow) on the Isle of Wight. Data on the number of patients who have recovered is released in a more sporadic way than other data points and was last updated on Thursday 9th April.
[visualizer id=”151191″]
The sharpest rise in the number of confirmed cases was between 3rd-5th April with an increase of 13 in just 2 days, closely followed by an increase of 12 cases between 10th-12th April.
It is unknown how many people have died in care homes or other locations outside of the hospital.
It has been 3 weeks since the lockdown restrictions were announced by the Prime Minister and the number of confirmed COVID-19 patients on the Island continues to rise, but the logarithmic graph below suggests that the Island could be heading towards a levelling in the number of cases – a possible peak in the pandemic.
The cases are certainly not rising uncontrollably, which will be welcome news for Islanders. This visualisation shows how the 56 confirmed cases are broken down.
[visualizer id=”151220″]
Unfortunately, it is hard to determine how the Island’s mortality rate compares to other parts of the country as data on the number of deaths is published by NHS Trust, whilst the number of cases is published by local authority – many mainland Trusts cover several local authorities.
One possible comparison is the area of York, which is served by the York Teaching Hospital NHS Trust. York has seen 127 confirmed cases with 42 deaths – a mortality rate of 33.07%.
The data on this page will not be updated. A new article will be published as the pandemic progresses with the latest data available at that time. This information is correct as of 10:00 14th April 2020.
I am wondering if the spikes are as a result of people not following guidelines and congregating in public areas.
Possibly yes, and the fact Lockdown was a week too late for some 🙁
Hardly comforting to see more has died than have been cured in our hospital.
Have we not got the proper ventilators or is it just bad luck we have such a high death v recovery rate here?
Until all the population have been tested, then it is hard to estimate the percentage of those likely to die, as we don’t know how many have had it, but gotten over it. But as numbers here are low, then not many I guess, so plenty of time for us to ‘catch up’ with the massive numbers of deaths elsewhere.
So the only ‘true figures’ we can use are the hospital admission known CV cases, but to see more dead than saved is deeply worrying.
I think authorities are trying to keep the truth from people to prevent fear, panic and anxiety, but whilst the numbers thus far are very low compared on the Island, the knowledge that if you get it, and then need hospital treatment, you have less chance of ever coming out again than dying is scary for all of us.
I can only imagine that the Government fully know many more will perish, and are just trying to get the hospitals fully equipped and built to cope with likely a couple of years of major total amounts of deaths, but less dying each day than now, so that people can die in hospital rather than dying at home, as would be the case if they didn’t try to slow the spread.
So once the hospitals are ‘as good as they can be’, the lockdown will end, as the country will be broken if people don’t return to work, BUT then CV will keep killing us off in massive total numbers, but over a longer period of time until a anti virus is given to us all.
The cure unlikely for around two years, as richer countries will be first on the list and the huge amount needed will be not easy to produce.
By then the virus may well mutate as the flu virus does, and getting the ‘right’ jab, will be another problem to face, and having a different one every time it changes.
So can see life being fraught, as who will want to go out to a pub, for a meal, to a theme park, KNOWING that the risk of catching this is ‘still there’, and even if you have been tested and ‘had it’ then you can still carry the virus back home on your skin, clothes, shoes, to someone who hasn’t.
Life will be vastly altered for a long long time yet.
Poverty will rise, as will crime, jobs become scarce, and as businesses collapse their supply chain will follow, and life for many will just be a hand to mouth experience. So the dim will have more children, bringing them into a world with a dire future, and all having to be kept by the state with no jobs hoping for state handouts, and the country, having huge debts, less tax, will have to cut back on everything to survive.
Would you choose to be born NOW. THINK.
20% death rate is not more people dying than surviving. It’s the complete opposite!
More people die with the flu than this virus.
Exactly so. And it seems that no one in the UK this year has died from flu, emphysema, asthma or any other lung related illness. Seems odd when in 2019 approx 25,000 died in the UK from the flu alone. Is everything now being put down to Covid19?
Hooray! People finally working it out for them selfs. And just ask yourself,why would this be the case? Then you might get the next bit in the agenda that’s waiting for us all .watching with interest
this seriously shows how lockdown was a 1 week too late, shame on our Gov for that decision.. 🙁 Keep Safe peeps.. Continue distancing, washing hands etc. By the way sadly this will not be an end to it for us here on the Island, as i am aware of some Island Care Homes not providing PPE.. which is going to have devastating results.
Many care homes aren’t supplying PPE, also many care in the community businesses.
How do these figures relate to the UK as a whole?
Very simple, divide the population of the United Kingdom- approx 65,000,000 (65 million) by the Isle of Wight population – approx 145,000 (145 thousand) The answer tells us that about 1 person in 450 in the UK lives on the IW.
For simplicity, call it 1 in 500. It’s only 10% adrift.
Therefore, to compare anything on the Island to national levels, just divide or multiply by 500. (or 450 with calculator)
Reported UK cases currently 88621 (divide by 500 = 177) Reported IW cases 56
Reported UK deaths currently 11,329 (divide by 500 = 22) Reported IW deaths 11.
We are doing pretty well over here. KEEP IT UP.
Nice for a change, to see someone who actually understands maths.
And spell.
Seeing as PPE (Visors) were asked to be sent to the Blood Dept from a company kindly donating to the hospital, and they did arrive but were then diverted away from said Dept, by managers that label staff that ask for PPE as quote “Trouble Makers”
As always at St Mary’s to many greedy managers…. they have no respect for the staff that really do the hard grind on the frontline, they just hide in the office, if they are even on site most of the time. Yes I am angry about this, my wife works at the hospital, and some of the stuff going on up there you would not believe….. the managers need a good hauling up in front of someone.
They need naming and shaming in my opinion. The people working at the hospital are there to protect us and need protection themselves. I do hope this all comes out when this awful virus passes as such and the managers are brought to account for their actions!
Totally agree with you Steve, such a sick way to behave….. but it has long been going on at our one and only hospital. I do know who these people are, so I am ready to launch an official complaint. The doctors, nurses and other clinical staff are quite simply amazing, but the managers just take the p**s.
Heard that managers have told staff not to speak to press or to post on social media accounts about lack of PPE
Our elderly population is 28% mainland is 18% hence rates of deaths is higher here will be aged related
Rather than reading all these negative comments on here what about thanking all our keyworkers for looking after us all and keeping the numbers down especially our fantastic NHS staff who without, the deaths would be much higher.
Do as advised
STAY HOME
KEEP YOUR DISTANCE
and we will come out of this sooner rather than later.
Stay Safe
Well said Squirrel xxx
The graph should be linear not logarithmic. It is making the climb in cases not look that bad.
A quote from the Irish medical association “We’re shocked by what’s happening in the UK”, says Prof Luke O’Neill, an immunologist at Trinity College Dublin.
You see their mortality rate is 7.4% as opposed to the IOW 19.64% they seem to think that testing and tracing then isolation and P.P.E is/was the answer. I afraid that British government has been caught on the back foot with this pandemic (like most things really when you look back in history)
How many have died in care homes? The figures are not included in the government’s figures…
Its so easy to blame the government for things, saying it was a week late etc well perhaps red funnel or wightlink should have closed the ferry service to all but key workers the moment we had the first death in the uk? Then that would guarantee our safety? Theres alot you can criticise and as humans we always want someone to blame, instead of spreading negativity which is easy to do, keep morale up instead with words of positivity
Not that long ago we were complaining of a rising older population, care homes were full, not enough staff etc well careful what you wish for because now those numbers of 70+ will dwindle, there will be free space and less pressure of care services, what will people say when that happens….
how very true Kay. It is NOT always someone else’s fault. STAY HOME, keep your distance from other people when you NEED to go out. Take responsibility and this virus will not be able to be transmitted.
So so many people walking past my house in Shanklin today. Just like normal. People are not listening to the guidelines whatsoever
The vast Majority are Staying IN, a minority are not following the guidelines, you must be aware people are allowed out to shop or exercise, go to the chemist, travel to essential work, the vets or doctors
The world is NOT normal outside your window, there are some rules to going out, some do not follow those rules and there is NOT enough police to fully cover one Island town let alone the whole Island unfortunately…..
The rate of official cases still remains well below the national average on the Island, but as in the rest of the Country continues to rise.
If the likes of the Army/Navy and Air Force were to patrol the countries streets there would likely be less abuse of the rules, again unfortunately there just is not enough of them.
If people been Vegans and didn’t exploit animals Covid19 and many other illnesses would simply not be.. But How Can I explain that to non vegan people who fear virus but people are the real virus….
Rubbish. Go back under your mushroom, or toadstool, oh hang on toadstools are not animals but can cause some nasty illnesses too, even death.
Are you serious? This is a man made virus, happy to provide a link to the science if you like. Being Vegan would not have saved anyone from this pandemic. I say this as a vegan! Get your head out of MSM.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Le_rfTdayLs&feature=youtu.be
Well done Island Echo. This is a good piece you’ve created here.
Ignore the imbeciles on FB who don’t understand graphs and the data that available!