Swathes of the Conservative’s ‘Rural Wall’ are defecting to Labour after years of economic neglect, according to a new report by the Country Land & Business Association (CLA) and Survation.
Polling of more than 1,000 people in England’s 100 most rural constituencies reveals a -18% fall in Tory support and a Labour surge of +16%, putting the Conservatives (41%) and Labour (36%) almost neck-and-neck for the next General Election.
The Conservatives currently hold 96 of the 100 most rural seats in England, but applying this trend to the 2019 results would see them lose 20 seats in 2024. This includes the Isle of Wight’s Bob Seely who they say could lose his seat to Labour as well as, among others, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt. His South West Surrey seat has been Conservative since 1983 but they say could now go to the Lib Dems.
Despite the historic bond between the Conservatives and rural England, only 36% of those polled agreed the Conservatives ‘understand and respect rural communities and the rural way of life’, with Labour close behind at 31%.
The survey reveals mounting frustration with economic policy and cost-of-living ‘premium’ affecting rural communities. The majority of respondents (69%) agreed the Government isn’t doing enough to tackle the cost-of-living crisis in rural areas, and 33% said cost-of-living pressures are affecting the countryside more than urban areas.
And of the political parties most trusted to stimulate economic growth in rural areas, between the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats, the largest group of respondents (34%) said ‘don’t know’, suggesting gains could be won by any party that offers an ambitious growth plan for the countryside.
CLA South East represents thousands of farmers, landowners and rural businesses across the South East including on the Isle of Wight.
Regional Director Tim Bamford said:
“In recent years, we’ve seen how quickly communities which feel left behind can rewrite the electoral map. In 2024, it could be the countryside’s turn.”
“There is a simple truth – no political party has at present shown that it understands, let alone shares, the aspirations of rural communities. The outdated planning regime holding rural businesses back, the lack of affordable housing driving families out, the outdated infrastructure limiting entrepreneurs’ potential, it is all having a devastating impact.”
“Any party which is willing to develop a robust and ambitious plan for the rural economy will secure significant support. Any party that wants to treat the countryside as a ‘museum’ will be punished.”
The polling comes after the All-Party Parliamentary Group for Rural Powerhouse published a report revealing how Government neglect has created a cost-of-living “rural premium”.
MPs found a shortage of affordable housing, inadequate power infrastructure, and poor connectivity has left rural communities spending 10-20% more on everyday items like fuel, despite wages being 7.5% lower than their urban counterparts.
This CLA and Survation report is the first in a series examining the voting intention of the most rural communities. 12 million voters live in rural areas, representing a significant proportion (16%) of the UK economy.
For more information about the CLA and its work, visit https://www.cla.org.uk/in-your-area/south-east/ and follow @CLASouthEast on Twitter.
Oh dear Bob me thinks your days could be numbered.
Never fear. I’ll buy all the votes I need to win again.
After the damage the Tories have done to this country, particularly in the last 7 years, anyone considering voting for them must be either wealthy (the only people who benefit from them) or certifiably insane.
Tories only ever help others to help themselves.
Yes , others to help themselves,we give out far too many benefits to lazy non workers, druggies and worthless people – time Universal Credit was worked for not just handed out. Food banks supply more food to poorer people in work who are trying hard. Not seen many poor on benefits!. None of parties are interested, only in wanting popularity and bragging for winning. We don’t need MPs,we have officers, house of lords and ruling King.
Well that is a surprise (not)!
I hope the voting public on the Isle of Wight remember, when it comes to the next general election, just what a mess the current government has made of everything, & how much we’ve all (mostly all) become worse off in so many ways.
We need a change of government!
To one less focussed on transferring the last vestiges of any wealth from the poor to the rich, and more focussed on making things better for the public in general, rather than just their rich ‘friends’….
No surprises there. Just hope the candidate selected to oppose him is better than he was. Conservative Party is proving itself to be double schemers, liars, and not really do much for the population of the UK
Thats all very well. But the answers don’t lie with the Labour party. Unless you believe Mr Blair and Co were a resounding success. Both parties have abandoned the people of this country. Mass migration has decimated this country for starters.
Some inconvenient facts for you.
Last year the UK recorded its highest ever immigration figures.1.2 million people entered the country legally. 26 times more than those arriving illegally. The highest this ever got under Labour was under 600,000.
Also worth remembering that most of the emigration under Labour was from the EU, who share similar cultural values to us. Now most are from Asia and Africa, who tend to have very different values.
Thing is, with the UKs falling birth rate and aging population, the skilled people we need to keep our businesses, not to mention health, service running have to come from overseas.
I don’t much about politics,
but I do know I was better off and happier under Blair and Co than I am now.
I don’t know much
But I know I love you
And that may be all I need to know
“Polling of more than 1,000 people in England’s 100 most rural constituencies”
What a pathetic sample size. Meaningless.
People are right to turn away from the Tories but if they think that voting for metropolitan Islington socialists is going to improve their lot then think again – labour intend to accelerate the mass impoverishment of net zero and also intend to concrete over huge swathes of the countryside to house their imported 3rd world immigrants (who up until last week they have stated they want to open the doors wider to accommodate even more)
Amazing how many people on here forget what a messa the last Labour government left behind resulting it years of cut backs. They also ignore the fact that we have just come out of a pandemic and going through a cost of living crisis due to the war in the Ukraine, neither of which was the fault of the Tories. Had Labour been in power we would have been a hell of a lot worse state than we are now. I for one will definately be voting Tory and I am not wealthy.
Hmmm.
Don’t remember being unable to get an NHS dentist under Labour.
Don’t remember it being almost impossible to see a GP under Labour.
Don’t remember people dying in the back of ambulances queuing outside of A&E under Labour.
You are aware that UK national debt has doubled under the Tories, aren’t you.
I don’t know where you have got your facts from, but the UK hasn’t been seen this level of poverty, and industrial unrest since the 1970s.
If you are, indeed, “not wealthy” and you vote Tory, you are a turkey voting for Christmas.
Would be worse under Labour for sure and if you want more Dentist,NHS etc then national Debt would need to x 10, then few years down line we would loose more and country would become poor, businesses would move away, health. Not our government fault war in Ukraine or COVID. We have come out better than many countries. Labour destroyed our country every time in power as don’t have a clue for long term prosperity.
Alternatively we could raise a lot more in taxation by taxing those who can afford it, rather than let them claim “non-dom” or have all their assets salted away offshore. Or we could take back into public ownership all those milk-cows that have been pouring profits into private hands since (Tory) privatisation.
“Labour destroyed our country every time in power as don’t have a clue for long term prosperity” – remind me, who introduced the NHS?
No just stupid !!
‘And I am not wealthy ‘ Not very bright either.
About bloody time too, Sausage Bob has done NOTHING for the island at all, he will be the first to go, then hopefully the total shambles we have pretending to be our oh so caring council.
PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE, everyone, it’s time to forget your political position and band together to rid the island of Bob Silly Seely. (Roads a disaster), (Health, a mess), (Dentistry, non-existent), (Public Toilets being closed all over), (Education, falling behind). (Ferries, ripping off islanders), Our towns are tatty and neglected, food banks busier than ever. All on your watch Blobby Bob. If we vote him in again, we deserve everything we get.
Steady on now. I want all these things to work well, just like the next person. It’s just that I believe they should all be run privately, we should pay for what we use and they should pay large dividends to their shareholders. Nothing wrong with that. If you don’t like it there’s always Russia.
If Bob loses his seat it will be because he has been particularly ineffective as our MP, regardless of party politics.
Bob Seely’s seat under threat? At last some good news.
If you’re interested in feral cats and lockdowns Bob may be your man. Otherwise a vote his way is a complete waste.
Close the door on the way out Bob.
Can someone please tell me of a single positive thing that BS BS had achieved for the island. I cannot think of a single thing!
He’s drawn the Island together in a single cause.
Getting rid of him and his self-serving, spiv Tory bosses.