RESEARCH SAYS ISLE OF WIGHT’S ‘R NUMBER’ IS THOUGHT TO BE JUST 0.42

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With fears of a second wave of coronavirus in the country, and the government trying to reduce the reproduction (R) number, research suggests the Island’s R is well below 1.

If the R number, the number of how many new people are infected by each case, is kept below 1.0, it is believed the coronavirus pandemic will, in time, disappear. However, if the R number rises the epidemic will grow — something the government is trying to avoid.

With more and more people heading out of the house on the Island, travelling to beaches and spending time outdoors — and from today meeting in groups of 6 from different households — there is cause for concern that the R rate could rise and bring with it a second peak.

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Now, new analysis compares the number of confirmed cases from local authorities and health boards over a 2-week time frame to estimate the trend of the R number.

In the last 2 weeks before the data (from 12th May to 26th May), confirmed coronavirus cases on the Isle of Wight increased by 40.

Latest data provided by researchers for Tuesday 26th May showed the R rate to be 0.42, having fallen from 1.77 on 18th May, when 7 new cases of COVID-19 were confirmed — the highest the R number had been since the beginning of April.

Sharing their findings on Deckzero, a crowd-sharing data platform, researchers said:

“This approximated value is not the instantaneous reproduction number.

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“However, it does bear the same unit and trending as [the instantaneous reproduction number] and thus may offer a glimpse into how it might have changed during the last 14-day period.

“When cases are small, R will fluctuate more; however, this should not be treated as noise as the infection grows exponentially if undisrupted.”

Compared to the rest of the country, the Isle of Wight has a relatively low number of cases, so this number may fluctuate. In Portsmouth and Southampton, the analysis puts the R number at 1.21 and 0.75 respectively.

The most recent value of the R number in the UK is thought to be between 0.7 and 1.0. The Government say the odds of catching the virus are now 1/1000.

The views/opinions expressed in these comments are solely those of the author and do not represent those of Island Echo. House rules on commenting must be followed at all times.
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Pam

Stop/reduce the amount of holiday makers coming over would be a start, I know economically it is a hardship, but lives must come first surely.

AMA

Why are there so many caravanettes/motorhomes around. The sites are closed, so where are the staying overnight. I know some islanders who own motorhomes are taking them out for a spin but you cannot tell me that these are all islanders.

richard

Some people got stuck here. I have a van will start using again soon. Considering putting stickers on it so people don’t think I’m from mainland and have a pop.

anon

social distancing doesn’t seem to matter to all these individuals who seem to think it is ok to congregate in a large group at trafalgar square to make a racket about an injustice in another country – these are the very same snowflakes that whine about 2 metre distance on the bus, don’t want to go to university, don’t want to send their kids to school – yet are more than happy to be up close and personal, when disrupting everyone else – hypocrites.

Wayne

That’s why we don’t need people coming over here. The scooter rally is still going ahead at the moment something I think our island MP should put a stop to. We can’t have all those scooters from all around the country coming down together

Paul

Please be very careful in reading this R number. On 14th May the Echo reported 161 recorded cases which increased to 195 on the 25th May. A big increase in R number looking at the average infection rate before that. It now sits at 199 which does suggest a reduction in the R number. It’s not rocket science. However there is so much uncertainty in testing numbers from the middle of May, serious questions over false positive/negative tests and unknown cases which are mild or symptomless. DONT let your guard down and always remember the vulnerable on the Island whose… Read more »

oldbutalive

It might be at the moment …… but …… will we see a sharp increase by this Friday or not?

I hope we do not for all of us especially if it goes above 1.

Welp!!

It won’t. Grow up. Stop being a wuss

mr justice

These sheep are petrified! It’s just ridiculous! I agreed with a post I saw on another platform saying, if ww2 was to happen now,we wouldn’t stand a chance. Pathetic.

worry

…..

Bob

It will be back next year like any seasonal flu its summer go and enjoy it covid 20 will be here soon plus a vacine thats when you should lock your self up from ever one you love and give up all ur rights so your be ok for now then when time come your be begging to be locked up again sheep

anon

whilst people are panicking here over this…spare a though for the democratic republic of congo…

They have a second outbreak of Ebola and still cannot be declared free of the epidemic in two years.
They have also had 72 deaths from Covid, however, testing isn’t really happening.

The elephant in the room for them, is that Measles has killed more people since 2019 than covid and ebola combined in the DRC.
369,520 measles cases and 6,779 deaths since 2019.

richard

So because it’s bad somewhere else we should join them and make it bad here?????
We all know how bad it is in these other places. I do feel for them. But I will not contribute to the increase here.

anon

richard – stop being a sheep and get on with your life, instead of hiding under the rug.

Mark

2nd spike of virus due on 15th june. You saw it here first.

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