Reform UK would win both the Isle of Wight’s parliamentary seats if an ‘election were held tomorrow’, YouGov has projected.
The pollster’s ‘industry-leading’ MRP model based on a sample of 13,000 voters projects Reform winning Isle of Wight West with 35% of the vote and Isle of Wight East with 34%.
YouGov said ‘high levels of uncertainty and volatility’ are ‘now the norm in British electoral politics’.
Its September 2025 MRP results are ‘no different in that regard’, it added.
Results in Full
Isle of Wight East
- Conservatives: 21%
- Labour: 11%
- Liberal Democrats: 12%
- Reform UK: 34%
- Green Party: 20%
- Other: 2%
Isle of Wight West
- Conservatives: 17%
- Labour: 24%
- Liberal Democrats: 11%
- Reform UK: 35%
- Green Party: 11%
- Other: 3%
What the Island’s political parties have to say
Cllr Bill Nigh, Reform UK county councillor for Lake North, said:
“The latest YouGov poll reflects what I have been hearing time and again on the doorsteps of Island residents during my election campaigns over the last few months.
“The Isle of Wight is demanding change. Based on these polls and on what people have said to me directly we will be looking to take control of this council and both parliamentary constituencies. This is a clear message that people on the Island have had enough and they want Reform.”
Phil Attfield, vice-chair of the Isle of Wight Constituency Labour Party, said Isle of Wight Labour acknowledged YouGov’s findings which “reflects widespread public frustration with the status quo, particularly the failures of successive Conservative governments”.
He said:
“While polling models like MRP offer useful insights, they are not forecasts and should be interpreted with caution — especially so far from a scheduled election.
“However, it also highlights the volatility of voter sentiment and the risks of protest voting. Reform UK’s rise is built on disillusionment, not on a coherent plan for the Island or the country.
“We urge voters to look beyond slogans and ask what Reform UK would actually do for the Island. Labour offers a credible alternative, grounded in values of social justice, economic renewal, and democratic accountability.”
Cllr Vix Lowthion, the Green Party’s candidate for Isle of Wight East at last year’s general election and chair of Newport and Carisbrooke Community Council, said:
“The collapse of the 2-party system has meant that the polls are shifting at such an alarming rate.
“In the last month, the Green Party has a new leader, and membership is skyrocketing as voters agree with our stance on fairness and justice.
“We have been very disappointed in the Labour government, but we are even more excited about our prospects in Isle of Wight East next time – the YouGov projected poll has us only one per cent away from leapfrogging the Conservatives with Greens into second place as the direct challenger to Reform.
“Much to play for before another general election. We welcome more members to join us – and make hope normal again.”
Joe Robertson, the Conservative MP for Isle of Wight East, said:
“MRP polls have been proven to be inaccurate. They predicted a Labour win in East Wight at the last general election and Labour came fourth.
“I will continue to work in the best interests of the Island, working with local residents, community groups and other elected people, cross-party.
“Residents of the East Wight will then deliver their verdict through the ballot box at the next general election which is the only poll that matters.”
What’s even more worrying, given Reform’s intention to stand a candidate in every single seat in the UK is that 13,000 people here could cheerfully vote for someone they’d never heard of, was parachuted in from elsewhere and aside from a loud right-wing opinion and rampant xenophobia knows bugger all about politics, the machinations of office or indeed anything about the various layers of governance.
But then, a lot of joe public seem to struggle with that lot too so I suppose it makes sense that people will vote for anything and believe the last thing they’re told. The irony of it is that people coming to this country know more about our politics, rules and regulation than it’s inhabitants. And they have to take a test to prove it. I wonder how many ‘patriots’ would fail it?
I can see my house in the photo
I am not surprised and would welcome it.
Some of the above stated reform have no plans for the future. Even if thats true, which I doubt, at least we will not have that jaw dropping moment when our newly elected government does exactly the opposite of their pre election manifesto promises.
I look forward to the whole corrupt system getting shook up. The last few governments, the unelected prime minister’s in the Tories, Labour doing ? God knows what, because the sh*t storm they have created and have no interest in fixing makes no sense to me.
One example, digital ID, sold as controlling immigration, what a crock, stopping the boats would do that, man the borders better. Numerous options. A picture on your phone won’t make any difference.
Online safety bill, sold to stop pedos and terrorists another crock, the list goes on. Our right to privacy virtually non existent now, democracy, forget it, nearly 3 million people on a peaceful march, very low arrest and injury numbers, more happen at football matches. All classed by our very biased media as far right, another crock.
So when Reform do get in, I cannot see how they could make a worse job, than the halfwits we have now.
Three million on a march? Must have somehow missed that one. When and where did it take place. How were the estimates made?
it never ceases to amaze me how people will support a so-called party like Reform, without actually bothering to .do the most basic research into how their recently elected council representatives are performing, including their esteemed leader Farage, who has barely been seen in the constituency that voted for him. Farage spends his time whipping up hatred with lies and inflammatory language about immigrants and so-called patriotism, while at the same time, coining it in by bad-mouthing the UK to his US cronies, his visits funded by his posh- boy friends. If you actually want to inform yourself, take a look at what Michael Heseltine and Edwina Currie have to say about Reform.
Worrying times if such a thug party are in power.
Come on Conservatives get your act together and
don’t go back on your promises and you could do
well.
That ship has sailed… and sunk
Here Here
We shall then end up with two absentee MPs. Ask anyone in Clacton and they will tell you Nigel Farage has never been seen there since the day he was elected.
Farage doesn’t know where Clacton is!
Lol
My prediction is that pre-election Farage will
bail out, he doesn’t have the b*lls to lead.
He talks the talk, but cannot walk the walk!
Nigel farage is a traitor. He travelled to the US to lobby their government to raise tariffs higher on the UK. should be stripped of citizenship and deported to live in trumps pool house.
A complete and utter shameless charlatan with the morals of a snake. (Sorry snakes)
True, of course, but also, I suspect, panicking a bit because he’s peaking now on the back of Labour reforms (of which there are many, despite the own goals) taking time to actually impact upon people’s lives and there being 4 years until the next General Election. There’s only so much steam you can get up with lies and misinformation and it’s beginning to run out, even now. He hasn’t even got a proper party, just his own money-making organisation supported by loathsome sidekicks like Richard Tice. (Overpriced Reform football shirt anyone? Or perhaps you’d like to buy flat-capped Nige a pint?)
Demonstrably untrue.
If you believe all the predictions it looks like we will be off to hell in a handcart. But do you really think they would let us vote if we could change things.
All the people who slag off Reform UK are running scared, scared of change for the good. Reform are leading by so much because they are saying out loud what people think, and the “mainstream” parties are far to scared to say. Might upset the “ethnic minorities”. So what, it all comes down to number, we, as a country cannot afford more and more foreigners “invading” our shores, oh my did I use the word invading. Good luck Reform UK
If Reform UK Ltd wins it’ll be a win for Putin.