GENERAL ELECTION: PLACE YOUR BETS – WHO WILL WIN THE ISLE OF WIGHT CONSTITUENCIES?

As polling day fast approaches, Island Echo examines the latest betting odds and polling predictions in the new constituencies of Isle of Wight East and Isle of Wight West. As far as anything in politics is known, nationally Labour seems set to win the most seats in Thursday’s General Election. Electoral Calculus gives Labour a 100% chance of being the largest party in the new parliament – about as certain (according to their calculations) as the sun rising on Friday morning. Of course, no one needs to agree with their maths. If you genuinely believe the Tories are in with a chance, then you can get 100/1 on them beating Labour at Paddy Power. A £10 bet would win you a cool £1,010 were Rishi Sunak to remain in 10 Downing Street. But what of the Isle of Wight and its 2 new constituencies – Isle of Wight East and Isle of Wight West…?

Isle of Wight East

Will the Isle of Wight return its first ever female MP? Electoral Calculus – the most well-known company in the business of predicting election results – believes so, and sees Emily Brothers as the hot favourite. Their predictions look like this:

1. Emily Brothers (Labour) 37.3%
2. Sarah Morris (Reform) 25.7%
3. Joe Robertson (Conservative) 22.7%
4. Vix Lowthion (Green) 6.7%
5. Michael Lilley (Lib Dem) 4.4%
6. David Groocock (Independent) 3.2%

Electoral Calculus believes the chances of each being elected are Emily Brothers 74%, Sarah Morris 16%, Joe Robertson 10% with 0% for all the others. This may come as a surprise to Vix Lowthion (Green), who won the Island Echo/Isle of Wight Observer Hustings event and is backed by the East Wight Primary organisation. Emily Brothers is the bookies favourite at 4/6 (Bet365); Joe Robertson (7/4 – Ladbrokes) is 2nd Favourite; Vix Lowthion (18/1 – Star Bet365) is 3rd favourite. Sarah Morris is a 50/1 outsider (Bet Victor), and you can also get 50/1 on Michael Lilley (Star Sports).

Vix Lowthion has been heavily backed in the East with more money placed on her candidature in the bookies than on anyone else, followed by Joe Robertson and Sarah Morris. Comparatively few gamblers have put money on Emily Brothers to win. The favourite Emily Brothers is, of course, the ‘safest’ bet and is far better value for money than her Labour colleague Richard Quigley. A £10 stake would see you take home £16.67. However, Emily’s more generous odds suggest the bookies see Richard’s chances of a win to be greater in the West. By far the best value for money of any candidate in either constituency is that of Sarah Morris (Reform). The polling experts believe her to be competitive, but the betting companies disagree. 50/1 is a more than generous offer for a candidate in 2nd place with a 16% chance of topping the poll.

Isle of Wight West

Can Bob Seely be returned to parliament for a 3rd time? Electoral Calculus thinks not. Their prediction goes as follows:

1. Richard Quigley (Labour) 38.4%
2. Ian Pickering (Reform UK) 23.1%
3. Bob Seely (Conservative) 22.5%
4. Cameron Palin (Green) 9%
5. Nick Stuart (Lib Dem) 4.6%
6. Rachel Thacker (ADF) 3.5%

The chances of each candidate being elected (according to Electoral Calculus) are Labour 78%, Reform UK 12% and Conservative 11%. All others are given 0% – no chance at all. This is reflected in the betting odds. Richard Quigley is hot favourite at 1/3 (Unibet), followed by Bob Seely at 7/2 (Ladbrokes) and Ian Pickering at a whopping 33/1 (Bet365). You can get 200/1 on both Nick Stuart (Ladbrokes) and Cameron Palin (Sky Bet). The Tories appear to be keen on election betting. The most money in the betting shops has been placed on Bob Seely, followed by Richard Quigley, then Cameron Palin and after this Ian Pickering.

Richard Quigley – who won the Island Echo/Isle of Wight Observer Hustings – is clearly the ‘safest’ bet (but you won’t make much money). A £10 stake would earn you just £13.33. The most ‘intelligent’ bet is probably for Ian Pickering (Reform). The polling experts give him a 12% chance of victory but the bookmakers clearly disagree. A £10 bet could see you take home £340 were he to top the poll. The betting odds are based on the best odds available at the time of publication. However, the odds and polls are both likely to fluctuate between now and polling day.