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GENERAL ELECTION: PLACE YOUR BETS – WHO WILL WIN THE ISLE OF WIGHT CONSTITUENCIES?

Generalelection2024 CopyAs polling day fast approaches, Island Echo examines the latest betting odds and polling predictions in the new constituencies of Isle of Wight East and Isle of Wight West.

As far as anything in politics is known, nationally Labour seems set to win the most seats in Thursday’s General Election. Electoral Calculus gives Labour a 100% chance of being the largest party in the new parliament – about as certain (according to their calculations) as the sun rising on Friday morning.

Of course, no one needs to agree with their maths. If you genuinely believe the Tories are in with a chance, then you can get 100/1 on them beating Labour at Paddy Power. A £10 bet would win you a cool £1,010 were Rishi Sunak to remain in 10 Downing Street.

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But what of the Isle of Wight and its 2 new constituencies – Isle of Wight East and Isle of Wight West…?

Isle of Wight East

Will the Isle of Wight return its first ever female MP? Electoral Calculus – the most well-known company in the business of predicting election results – believes so, and sees Emily Brothers as the hot favourite. Their predictions look like this:

  1. Emily Brothers (Labour) 37.3%
  2. Sarah Morris (Reform) 25.7%
  3. Joe Robertson (Conservative) 22.7%
  4. Vix Lowthion (Green) 6.7%
  5. Michael Lilley (Lib Dem) 4.4%
  6. David Groocock (Independent) 3.2%

Electoral Calculus believes the chances of each being elected are Emily Brothers 74%, Sarah Morris 16%, Joe Robertson 10% with 0% for all the others. This may come as a surprise to Vix Lowthion (Green), who won the Island Echo/Isle of Wight Observer Hustings event and is backed by the East Wight Primary organisation.

Emily Brothers is the bookies favourite at 4/6 (Bet365); Joe Robertson (7/4 – Ladbrokes) is 2nd Favourite; Vix Lowthion (18/1 – Star Bet365) is 3rd favourite. Sarah Morris is a 50/1 outsider (Bet Victor), and you can also get 50/1 on Michael Lilley (Star Sports).

Generalelectionhustings2024 Ryde024
L-R: David Groocock (Ind), Sarah Morris (Reform), Joe Robertson (Con), Michael Lilley (Lib Dem), Vix Lowthion (Green) and Emily Brothers (Lab)

Vix Lowthion has been heavily backed in the East with more money placed on her candidature in the bookies than on anyone else, followed by Joe Robertson and Sarah Morris. Comparatively few gamblers have put money on Emily Brothers to win.

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The favourite Emily Brothers is, of course, the ‘safest’ bet and is far better value for money than her Labour colleague Richard Quigley. A £10 stake would see you take home £16.67. However, Emily’s more generous odds suggest the bookies see Richard’s chances of a win to be greater in the West.

By far the best value for money of any candidate in either constituency is that of Sarah Morris (Reform). The polling experts believe her to be competitive, but the betting companies disagree. 50/1 is a more than generous offer for a candidate in 2nd place with a 16% chance of topping the poll.

Isle of Wight West

Can Bob Seely be returned to parliament for a 3rd time? Electoral Calculus thinks not. Their prediction goes as follows:

  1. Richard Quigley (Labour) 38.4%
  2. Ian Pickering (Reform UK) 23.1%
  3. Bob Seely (Conservative) 22.5%
  4. Cameron Palin (Green) 9%
  5. Nick Stuart (Lib Dem) 4.6%
  6. Rachel Thacker (ADF) 3.5%

The chances of each candidate being elected (according to Electoral Calculus) are Labour 78%, Reform UK 12% and Conservative 11%. All others are given 0% – no chance at all.

This is reflected in the betting odds. Richard Quigley is hot favourite at 1/3 (Unibet), followed by Bob Seely at 7/2 (Ladbrokes) and Ian Pickering at a whopping 33/1 (Bet365). You can get 200/1 on both Nick Stuart (Ladbrokes) and Cameron Palin (Sky Bet).

The Tories appear to be keen on election betting. The most money in the betting shops has been placed on Bob Seely, followed by Richard Quigley, then Cameron Palin and after this Ian Pickering.

Electionhustings2024west 001
L-R: Bob Seely (Con), Rachel Thacker (ADF), Nick Stuart (Lib Dem), Cameron Palin (Green), Ian Pickering (Reform) and Richard Quigley (Labour)

Richard Quigley – who won the Island Echo/Isle of Wight Observer Hustings – is clearly the ‘safest’ bet (but you won’t make much money). A £10 stake would earn you just £13.33.

The most ‘intelligent’ bet is probably for Ian Pickering (Reform). The polling experts give him a 12% chance of victory but the bookmakers clearly disagree. A £10 bet could see you take home £340 were he to top the poll.

The betting odds are based on the best odds available at the time of publication. However, the odds and polls are both likely to fluctuate between now and polling day.

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The views/opinions expressed in these comments are solely those of the author and do not represent those of Island Echo. House rules on commenting must be followed at all times.
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Qwerty King
Qwerty King
1 day ago

Anybody got any insider information? I wanna win this bet!

martin
martin
Reply to  Qwerty King
1 day ago

Bob seely will be looking for a job . I’ve just seen his CV….
rien ne va plus

Last edited 1 day ago by martin
Paul the other one
Paul the other one
Reply to  martin
1 day ago

I saw Bob in Cowes today, looked like he was
heading for the Ferry
My guess to purchase a 1 way ticket.

Youssuf Fouad
Youssuf Fouad
Reply to  Qwerty King
1 day ago

Labour to win both seats. Bet on the double.

Helen Highwater
Helen Highwater
Reply to  Qwerty King
23 hours ago

You’ll have to ask a Tory party official …

Jonny
Jonny
1 day ago

Bye bye tory liars,bye bye!

smiffy
smiffy
1 day ago

Looks like Reform are going to hand both seats to Labour.

So they actually are useful for something.

Who knew?

Last edited 1 day ago by smiffy
Gerrard F'aggot
Gerrard F'aggot
Reply to  smiffy
1 day ago

Whoever votes reform are deluded

siisnotbye
siisnotbye
Reply to  Gerrard F'aggot
4 hours ago

I think you are deluded because they talk some sense what would you do if the dinghys started landing on the island ? and you have to abide by there law

Gerrard F'aggot
Gerrard F'aggot
Reply to  siisnotbye
18 minutes ago

I would just get on with my own life,
don’t forget if the West didn’t invade their homeland
they would not be arriving on our shores.

Chill out.

Hans Bromwich
Hans Bromwich
1 day ago

I would just like to say that it is unfair to suggest that the Conservative Party hasn’t delivered on Brexit, I mean, we still have bent bananas don’t we?

Paul
Paul
Reply to  Hans Bromwich
1 day ago

Brexit never happened and never will!
Reformers think it did.
Bunch of Muppets
Lol

M Oseley
M Oseley
1 day ago

follow the french way, seriously move the country to the right, it’s the only way! Labour will bankrupt us again, just like they did last time! careful what you wish for people!

Eatmyshorts
Eatmyshorts
Reply to  M Oseley
1 day ago

Give it a rest will ya. Labour didn’t bankrupt us you clown. The banks got greedy and had to be bailed out because of a WORLD financial crisis.

Miss Sensible
Miss Sensible
Reply to  Eatmyshorts
1 day ago

where’s the gold Gordon Brown?

IsleoWill
IsleoWill
Reply to  M Oseley
1 day ago

Osborne borrowed a trillion and bailed out the banks. Dido Harding 39billion on Track and Trace. Then all the other dodgy PPE contracts, more billions. Miss Sensible (surely a misnomer) Gordon Brown did the right thing – even Paul Dacre agreed with that. And you say Labour will bankrupt the country. You need to stop having a bowl of stupid for breakfast.

Qwerty King
Qwerty King
Reply to  IsleoWill
22 hours ago

vote Labour, work hard & give it to others, the Starmer way!

Qwerty King
Qwerty King
Reply to  Qwerty King
20 hours ago

More plastic qwerty comments. Come on plastic qwerty, try to be funny or witty or something.

Nigel Davidson
Nigel Davidson
Reply to  Qwerty King
16 hours ago

I’m looking forward to Labour recovering the £Billions Tories stole with pandemic fraud

Nigel Davidson
Nigel Davidson
Reply to  IsleoWill
16 hours ago

….and let’s not forget Bob Seely supporting Liz Truss, the lettuce who flushed £30bn down the toilet, resulting in interest rates rising to over 11%

Hans Bromwich
Hans Bromwich
1 day ago

Ah yes, the return of BoJob, the pandemic partying buffoon. Were saved! 

I can hear Bobski chanting, ‘I’m supporting Boris!’ 

Titchy, no one’s is interested, the Tories are Toast, go and fill your corrupt boots elsewhere, our country doesn’t need any of you.

Robert
Robert
19 hours ago

It’s not the local candidate thats important its the party leaders! Starmer as Prime Minister! ” God help us”

Nigel Davidson
Nigel Davidson
Reply to  Robert
16 hours ago

Yes, but with Seely it’s self first, Party second, and island last.

Gerrard F'aggot
Gerrard F'aggot
17 minutes ago

Don’t forget if you want a better future for your children and their
children – Vote Labour

The Founders of the N.H.S

 

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