As polling day fast approaches, Island Echo examines the latest betting odds and polling predictions in the new constituencies of Isle of Wight East and Isle of Wight West. As far as anything in politics is known, nationally Labour seems set to win the most seats in Thursday’s General Election. Electoral Calculus gives Labour a 100% chance of being the largest party in the new parliament – about as certain (according to their calculations) as the sun rising on Friday morning. Of course, no one needs to agree with their maths. If you genuinely believe the Tories are in with a chance, then you can get 100/1 on them beating Labour at Paddy Power. A £10 bet would win you a cool £1,010 were Rishi Sunak to remain in 10 Downing Street. But what of the Isle of Wight and its 2 new constituencies – Isle of Wight East and Isle of Wight West…?
Isle of Wight East
Will the Isle of Wight return its first ever female MP? Electoral Calculus – the most well-known company in the business of predicting election results – believes so, and sees Emily Brothers as the hot favourite. Their predictions look like this:
- Emily Brothers (Labour) 37.3%
- Sarah Morris (Reform) 25.7%
- Joe Robertson (Conservative) 22.7%
- Vix Lowthion (Green) 6.7%
- Michael Lilley (Lib Dem) 4.4%
- David Groocock (Independent) 3.2%
Electoral Calculus believes the chances of each being elected are Emily Brothers 74%, Sarah Morris 16%, Joe Robertson 10% with 0% for all the others. This may come as a surprise to Vix Lowthion (Green), who won the Island Echo/Isle of Wight Observer Hustings event and is backed by the East Wight Primary organisation. Emily Brothers is the bookies favourite at 4/6 (Bet365); Joe Robertson (7/4 – Ladbrokes) is 2nd Favourite; Vix Lowthion (18/1 – Star Bet365) is 3rd favourite. Sarah Morris is a 50/1 outsider (Bet Victor), and you can also get 50/1 on Michael Lilley (Star Sports). 
Isle of Wight West
Can Bob Seely be returned to parliament for a 3rd time? Electoral Calculus thinks not. Their prediction goes as follows:
- Richard Quigley (Labour) 38.4%
- Ian Pickering (Reform UK) 23.1%
- Bob Seely (Conservative) 22.5%
- Cameron Palin (Green) 9%
- Nick Stuart (Lib Dem) 4.6%
- Rachel Thacker (ADF) 3.5%
The chances of each candidate being elected (according to Electoral Calculus) are Labour 78%, Reform UK 12% and Conservative 11%. All others are given 0% – no chance at all. This is reflected in the betting odds. Richard Quigley is hot favourite at 1/3 (Unibet), followed by Bob Seely at 7/2 (Ladbrokes) and Ian Pickering at a whopping 33/1 (Bet365). You can get 200/1 on both Nick Stuart (Ladbrokes) and Cameron Palin (Sky Bet). The Tories appear to be keen on election betting. The most money in the betting shops has been placed on Bob Seely, followed by Richard Quigley, then Cameron Palin and after this Ian Pickering. 
Anybody got any insider information? I wanna win this bet!
Bob seely will be looking for a job . I’ve just seen his CV….
rien ne va plus
I saw Bob in Cowes today, looked like he was
heading for the Ferry
My guess to purchase a 1 way ticket.
Labour to win both seats. Bet on the double.
You’ll have to ask a Tory party official …
Bye bye tory liars,bye bye!
Looks like Reform are going to hand both seats to Labour.
So they actually are useful for something.
Who knew?
Whoever votes reform are deluded
I think you are deluded because they talk some sense what would you do if the dinghys started landing on the island ? and you have to abide by there law
I would just get on with my own life,
don’t forget if the West didn’t invade their homeland
they would not be arriving on our shores.
Chill out.
I would just like to say that it is unfair to suggest that the Conservative Party hasn’t delivered on Brexit, I mean, we still have bent bananas don’t we?
Brexit never happened and never will!
Reformers think it did.
Bunch of Muppets
Lol
follow the french way, seriously move the country to the right, it’s the only way! Labour will bankrupt us again, just like they did last time! careful what you wish for people!
Give it a rest will ya. Labour didn’t bankrupt us you clown. The banks got greedy and had to be bailed out because of a WORLD financial crisis.
where’s the gold Gordon Brown?
Osborne borrowed a trillion and bailed out the banks. Dido Harding 39billion on Track and Trace. Then all the other dodgy PPE contracts, more billions. Miss Sensible (surely a misnomer) Gordon Brown did the right thing – even Paul Dacre agreed with that. And you say Labour will bankrupt the country. You need to stop having a bowl of stupid for breakfast.
vote Labour, work hard & give it to others, the Starmer way!
More plastic qwerty comments. Come on plastic qwerty, try to be funny or witty or something.
I’m looking forward to Labour recovering the £Billions Tories stole with pandemic fraud
….and let’s not forget Bob Seely supporting Liz Truss, the lettuce who flushed £30bn down the toilet, resulting in interest rates rising to over 11%
Ah yes, the return of BoJob, the pandemic partying buffoon. Were saved!
I can hear Bobski chanting, ‘I’m supporting Boris!’
Titchy, no one’s is interested, the Tories are Toast, go and fill your corrupt boots elsewhere, our country doesn’t need any of you.
It’s not the local candidate thats important its the party leaders! Starmer as Prime Minister! ” God help us”
Yes, but with Seely it’s self first, Party second, and island last.
Don’t forget if you want a better future for your children and their
children – Vote Labour
The Founders of the N.H.S