Reform UK would win the most Isle of Wight Council seats out of any party, according to 2 predictions ahead of the 7th May local elections.
The forecasts from PollCheck and Britain Votes Now come as Nigel Farage’s party continues to top national polls, with POLITICO’s poll of polls putting it on 25% of the vote as of Friday, 24th April.
County Hall currently has 13 Conservative councillors, 11 from the Alliance including two Greens, four non-aligned independents and 4 Liberal Democrats. There are also 3 Empowering Islanders representatives, 2 Very Broad Church independents and one Labour councillor.
PollCheck projects Reform winning 26 wards and unseating senior figures such as Alliance group leader Phil Jordan and committee chairs including Karen Lucioni, Paul Brading, Debbie Andre and Julie Jones-Evans.
The political data site has the Conservatives on 3 seats, the Greens winning two, Labour and the Liberal Democrats losing all their councillors, seven independents and one Vectis Party gain.
PollCheck says its projections are built from national polling data, local election history and demographic modelling, not ward-level surveys.
It also notes that independent candidates are ‘inherently difficult’ to model from national data and states actual results ‘may vary significantly’.
Britain Votes Now meanwhile forecasts the election of 18 Reform councillors, 12 independents, four Liberal Democrats, three Greens, one Conservative and one Labour member.
Under the website’s prediction, councillors Jordan and Lucioni hold onto their seats but in Ventnor and St Lawrence, Conservative group leader Ed Blake loses to independent candidate Linda Jefferies.
Britain Votes Now lists demographics, local political context and polling as the basis of its analysis.
POLITICO’s national poll of polls aggregates voting intention data from external polling firms.
As of 24th April, it has Reform on 25%, the Green Party, Labour and Conservatives with 17% of the vote each, the Liberal Democrats garnering 12% and 4% for Restore Britain.
PollCheck can be accessed here: https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/locals-2026#/isle_of_wight and Britain Votes Now here: https://britain.votes.now/local-elections/may-26/isle-of-wight-election
Well let’s hope for the sake of all rational human beings as always the so called “pilling experts”are totally off whack after all if your like me you tell them all “yes “you will get my vote just to get rid of them mind you my dogs saw off Reform candidate in our ward he decided he would put his head over my side gate even tho warned dogs inside..lots of reform leaflets all down my drive
It’s worth noting that one of the polls cited by ‘Britain Votes Now’ is owned by Electify Ltd which is itself owned by Reform’s Ben O’Neil.
Bring it on. Quigerly your next the clock is ticking for our first and very last Liebor mp. Time for change is arriving shortly.
See the iow Liebor MP Quigerly voted not to investigate Starmer. Good little boy pat him on the head and give him a chocolate biscuit. Decisions like this make Liebor less popular everyday. General election now.
Rumours are Raynor is coming back
God help us!
We can deal with her next let’s get rid of Starmer first then maybe an election in 2027.
I cannot understand how ones does not pay their
stamp duty and then gets back in the fold
DOESN’T SET A GOOD EXAMPLE OF
RIGHT FROM WRONG
Britain Votes Now way out with their predictions.
Jordan and Lucioni will both lose and shop assistant Jefferies hasn’t a snowball in hells chance of winning in Ventnor.
PollCheck nearer the mark with Jordan, Lucioni, Andre and Boojum & Snark losing, but Brading should survive.
I have Reform on 22: Indies on 8: Torys on 7 and Lib Dems on 2.
Toxic, vile Greens and Liebore will quite rightly lose any representation here.
The worrying thing is Reform are gormless
but the others ain’t much better and they have had
years of practice.
We received a poster through the letterbox – one from Reform in the post and one from Labour with the post. Neither had any contact details to contact the candidate. Obviously, as we cannot ask them their views on any subject, so we can make an informed decision, we won’t be voting for either of them.
I have had a few Reform posters, they are desperate
for the votes. I filed them immediately in the bin.
Doing my bit for net zero. Binning rubbish
Lol
It will be a sad day in the history of the island if so!
It will show the calibre of persons living on the
island.
Just seen Wightlink ferry fares are going up due to Liebor ETS scheme .One more reason to ditch Liebor and QUGERLY said he would sort the ferries in 100days we should of all smelt the BULL%%IT then.
Yes, a vote for Labour is now a direct vote for higher ferry prices. That’s a sure-fire winning policy, isn’t it?
Couldn’t sort out his rubber duck yet alone the Ferries
Quack Quack!
Since you seem to be so educated and well informed about everything in the world and everyone else are just brain dead gormless idiots maybe you could actually put out a solution, you know put forward an argument for the party you would vote for maybe!? Instead i just always see derogatory comments and nonsense. I am honestly excited for when people like you don’t have control anymore, you can still hand over everything you own and all your rights to your perfect little government like the good puppet you are and the rest of us can live our lives how we actually want to.
Noticed our labour MP agreed with his nonsey leader in the commons vote, I’m with reform.
Independent for me, only chance of someone
caring / looking after the island!
Nige still don’t know where Clacton on Sea is.
Says a lot doesn’t it!
Nonsey leader? So much better to side with the mate of the orange pedophile in the US.
Where’s your proof? I could sit here right now and say your a dirty old pedo and a rapist. With no evidence whatsoever. Get over yourself and maybe start doing some of your own research than just spilling out virtue hate.